What a historic move.
My original assessment that we would also take this resistance zone without too many major disruptions was wrong — I got too optimistic.

I was already wondering when I would be wrong again for once, and here we are. In a way, it was about time I got taken to the woodshed again. Nobody escapes it forever.

It was a very large disruption — one could even say a historic one, because what happened was historic: a 10-sigma deviation, almost impossible.

Silver fell 41% in two days.

The Vaapad Fund dropped 30%.

Since the portfolio is still mainly in leveraged mining stocks and the portfolio itself was double-leveraged, this is at least a partial success.

Because the odds in the short-term window were no longer fully to the upside, I reduced vulnerability to a pullback in advance through diversification — for example, by selling off Nexa (which had strong silver exposure) and increasing exposure to other critical commodities.

Additionally, hedges in the shipping sector worked to some extent and were able to take pressure off from the liquidation side over the course of the day (I had bought CISS at $1.65, and in pre-market today it was at $4).

The position in gold via Namm was still large, and after the stock had risen about 7x from my entry at its high, the pullback here was correspondingly severe — even though gold itself only fell by 14%. In hindsight, it would have made sense to take profits (which I’m sure some of you did), but in such a move it’s very hard to gauge when an intermediate high has been reached. That’s why I kept the leverage high and, as mentioned, tried to steer the ship in time to make the curve instead of easing off the gas.

Shortly before the crash, I sensed that something wasn’t right and initiated a short in silver with the remaining liquidity. It immediately went against me after entry, and since I wasn’t confident enough, I closed it a short time later and didn’t communicate it — as can be read here on X:

By that time of day, only a small fraction of you would have gotten in anyway.
In the hours that followed, silver then crashed by around 41%.

The psychological signalling effect rippled right across the entire commodity complex and was also clearly felt in the broader stock market.

It was a strange risk-off situation in which only cash worked.

And — which is allowed in overnight / extended-hours trading — was almost completely liquidated.
With a 300% profit, a 4X return.
Still extremely annoying.

It also lightly hit some other positions.
In the subsequent hours, partial sales were also triggered in ABx.asx, EMC.asx and QNS.sgx

This is what the portfolio looks like now — leverage has been reduced to roughly 1.7:

When you look at the overall situation, the move was extremely dramatic, but I interpret it as extremely bullish.

The short-term overheated sentiment exploded with a bang and got reset.

I even ran an extra poll on X because I had my suspicions:

But not only has sentiment shifted, the most important charts have also retested faith and, in my opinion, delivered definitive signals.

One of the most important charts — namely the silver-to-silver-miners ratio — produced a false breakout during the crash, thereby exposing the silver crash as a deception.

It is the most bullish setup for silver miners that I have ever seen and confirms that this is not the end of the move, but only the beginning.

During the crash, pressure from physical buyers increased sharply, as reports from sources in Singapore indicated.

Buying pressure on the silver miners side also surged significantly: after an initial sell-off (false breakout in the ratio), there was strong buying, and silver miners strongly outperformed silver itself.

In my view, silver now has potential up to $400. Most silver miners will outperform this move by about three times and could multiply up to tenfold from here — in just months in the best case.

If you look at the ratio from the gold miners to gold side, it’s also clear that this is just a retest.

Everything points to the market having now broken free to initiate a far more significant rise.

I think gold will head toward up to $10,000 in the coming months, and the miners will finally enter a ferocious phase of outperformance. That’s why I expect the ratios to continue crashing — here to the upside, because miners and metal are flipped:

And long-term, everything’s still perfectly solid — there’s honestly no reasonable alternative to commodity stocks right now. The data is crystal clear and hasn’t budged.

That’s exactly why I’m staying heavily overweight in this sector for the foreseeable future.

Commodity equities are the trade of this century. Even if silver miners would 10x over the next few months, that still wouldn’t mark the ultimate top — it would just be the opening leg of a much, much bigger commodity cycle that could easily run for decades because of the technological age we are in.

I’ll continue trying to keep the leverage as high as possible and therefore keep buying into the upmove.

First priority will be to restore the pre crash allocations as much as I can.
That means, above all, adding to as soon as it’s possible again.

What unfolded over the past few days feels like the opening salvo of something genuinely historic — either intentionally orchestrated or at the very least strategically seized upon by the largest players who likely amplified it to the downside and very likely bought it big. Because the miners and the physical metal showed buying pressure during the crash.

This entry may not last forever. It will probably be over just as quickly as it came.

Vaapad Strategy has reached an impressive performance of 44% over the past 30 days. The adjustments we made are clearly paying off. In the last month, there has been little substantial restructuring beyond a few sector expansions. However, increasing risk through margin expansion has worked out, and contrary to mainstream market opinion, no correction materialized in silver. Quite the opposite: the breakout is gaining momentum, supported by the broad commodity front moving higher alongside it. Rick Rule is back in silver miners as well, and people are slowly realizing the true magnitude of the move we are in right now. Even though portfolio performance has been exceptionally strong so far — clearly outperforming both silver itself and silver-miner ETFs thanks to careful rotation and stock selection — the mining sector still has a lot of catching up to do.

Mining stocks have, in the truest sense of the word, crashed against silver over recent months, yet through excellent stock picking we were still able to significantly outperform silver — the best-performing asset of 2025. Still, anyone who held physical silver has delivered very strong results so far — better than most expected, myself included — and this is very evident in the silver/miners ratio chart I have posted multiple times on X. But in my view this is a fakeout. I believe silver miners will now demonstrate tremendous strength, signaling that the rally remains intact, which will cause the silver-to-miners ratio to break down sharply. I expect a factor-of-3 outperformance by miners over the metal itself — and all of it within just a few months.

Not only miners but silver itself will continue rising strongly. While silver has roughly tripled since the portfolio started in May 2025, Vaapad Strategy has increased approximately eightfold. That is almost three times the performance.

This was not only due to well-timed silver trades, but also to well-timed short positions in Asia and multibagger trades in the fluorspar sector and rare earths (for those who still remember the old platform).

In my opinion, the portfolio is currently in an excellent position to continue rising strongly. Many of our holdings have already experienced technical breakouts or are very close to them. Several fundamental events and catalysts are also approaching, often going hand in hand with the technical setups. And we continue to move against the crowd — the crowd that still ignores rare earths and believes the silver train has already left the station. I have waited many years for this exact moment: the start of the great rotation into commodities. It is accompanied by the usual market criers constantly warning of pullbacks. But they all live in an old world with old metrics that no longer apply in the current bull cycle. 2020 was the warning shot; 2025 has shown how powerful the momentum really is. Silver was the leading signal and will remain at the forefront. In my view, 2026 will clearly surpass 2025 in terms of upward momentum, especially for mining stocks. Sector rotation will continue to accelerate.

Not only on a fundamental and sentiment basis do many data points support this view — technically we are also in significant breakouts that are reflected in the portfolio holdings as well. That is why, in the next section, I would like to show the positions with charts to clearly illustrate — with visuals — how much upside potential still lies ahead.

1. Highlander Silver

Investor call sources suggest that Highlander Silver intends to significantly expand the silver resource at Corani — specifically in the low-AISC sulfide layers of the deposit. I mean, they didn’t buy it just to let it sit there; this is exactly what I expected. Geologically, there is still plenty of room to the upside. Compared to Hycroft Mining, only about one-third of the drilling has been completed so far, with no deep holes. The last drilling campaigns are decades old. Highlander now has the money and the knowledge to demonstrate what Corani is truly capable of. Advances in separation technologies could multiply the mine life further by efficiently separating and incorporating the manganese- and iron-rich oxide layers. The depth and the highest-grade portions of the Corani system have not even been tested yet. Unlike Hycroft, the company will not inflate its resources by lowering grades and including halo material; it has sufficient geological potential to expand at high grades. Combined with San Luis and other very likely planned mergers, the overall footprint could increase dramatically. We are not talking about 20% resource growth — we are talking several hundred percent. The growth potential is immense. I believe this company will rise to the very top of the sector. And the Lundins, who strongly back Highlander Silver, should not be underestimated. The fact that they hold their shares privately rather than in the family trust speaks to an even stronger conviction (personal wealth at stake) and to the major growth initiatives planned here. The NYSE listing — right in the heart of the financial markets — is coming soon and will drive prices further. Liquidity brings money. It is reasonable to assume that ETFs will also include the stock once the combined size of Corani (BCM merger) and San Luis becomes impossible to ignore. The full merger close is still pending and should provide another solid price catalyst. I see prices well above 50 CAD as realistic — and likely sooner rather than later. For me, Highlander Silver belongs at the absolute top worldwide when it comes to silver, gold, and manganese. Manganese remains extremely cheap and could play a role in solid-state batteries and other battery types. A lot of cheap metals are researched for power use cases and battery demand is the main demand driver for me, next to steel. Corani is so large and manganese-rich that people expected market flooding. But in the first phase, only the silver-bearing parts will likely be mined — and by the time manganese production ramps up, demand could already be many times higher, creating the next major multiplier driver after the silver mania.

2. Harena Rare Earth

Harena has moved up to #2 in the portfolio. It hosts one of the largest ionic clay deposits outside China and is absurdly undervalued for its resource potential. Leaching tests already conducted in 2025 confirmed the deposit is economically extractable, and the company plans to release new data soon. The key focus now is the exploitation license from the Madagascar authorities — a major catalyst that is likely imminent. Management has been expanded to push further toward production planning. I see strong potential here for a re-rating and possibly even a takeover — though the owner is unlikely to sell at current prices. The entire ionic rare-earth sector remains heavily under the radar, as very little knowledge about it exists outside China.

3. Nexa Resources

Nexa is not only strongly tied to the silver price but also heavily dependent on zinc — the company’s main product. Zinc has been an underdog for a long time, just like silver once was, but the odds are good that zinc will start running in this commodity bull market. We can observe a classic cup-and-handle formation that is now very close to breaking out — similar to what happened with silver.

Nexa is still extremely cheaply valued and has the potential to multiply earnings. Its operations were designed for the low zinc prices of the past 20 years and are therefore highly efficient. The float is tight, so upward moves can happen faster than many expect. It is unlikely that majority owner Votorantim will dump shares onto the market, especially as dividend payouts are very likely to rise sharply. Margin requirements are low due to the NYSE listing, so I remain invested. Momentum should stay strongly earnings-driven, given multiple operating mines and smelters and over 60,000 employees. Despite all this, the valuation remains exceptionally attractive.

4. ABx Group

I am considering increasing the weighting in ABx further. It has become clear that the record-high proportions of heavy rare earths in the deposit — dysprosium and terbium — significantly enhance the economics, and these proportions are uniquely high worldwide outside of China, making heap-leach processing highly viable. In addition, a bauxite layer lies above the rare-earth layer, from which aluminum is produced. Aluminum is in strong demand and, like zinc, is on the verge of a breakout.

ABx can sell the overlying bauxite layer profitably into the booming aluminum market and use the cash flow to develop the world-class rare-earth layers below to production readiness. The deposit is shallow and spread over a wide area, making it easy to mine due to the low depth, and drilling is exceptionally simple because of the clay nature and shallow depths. With ABx’s experience in bauxite mining (and rare-earth operational knowledge from Malaysia in management), tremendous torque is possible through rapid execution. At the same time, it has the potential to disrupt the fluorspar market by extracting fluorine compounds from aluminum smelter slag in a pilot plant, replacing costly fluorspar consumption in aluminum production via a circular process. Three fronts with enormous growth potential. The valuation will not stay this low forever. There are also speculations that Ucore Rare Metals may want to apply its extraction process to ABx concentrate, thereby supplying the US with heavy rare earths — which the country lacks in economically competitive geological form. MP Materials as the US flagship has hardly any heavy rare earths and would crash the NdPr market (and itself) by trying to produce sufficient volumes.

5. First Andes Silver

As we are now in the high phase of the silver bull market, a silver nano position should not be missing from the portfolio. In the final stages of such moves, explorers tend to perform exceptionally well. First Andes Silver is currently conducting the first modern systematic exploration of its 1,100-ha exploration area in Peru’s silver belt. There are historical shafts on the property, but a large portion of the silver veins remains untouched, as early mining likely only targeted surface-visible material in localized shallow digging. I believe First Andes will sprint toward production by mining concentrate and selling it without processing it themselves initially — simply by selling to nearby mills. There are a number of mines operating in the area with excess mill capacity for high-grade silver-base metal feed that are within 40 to 50 km of Santa Gloria. At least one private Peruvian miner also has capacity to provide underground miners and equipment, drastically reducing timeline and CAPEX requirements to cash flow. This could enable a relatively non-dilutive path to becoming a producer, and with the cash flow, one could later scale up its own production cycle or focus further on Australia.

In addition to the Peru focus, Australia is now strongly represented. The company is in the process of acquiring 45,400 ha of exploration ground — a massive land package — for just 15,500 AUD and 1.5 million shares, i.e., a few hundred thousand Australian dollars. That equals 454 square kilometers. An incredibly good deal. Since the deal was heavily tied to the share price, it is likely already closed. No more sellers in the stock, and the price is rising. The Australian areas are heavily underexplored, as no major mines currently exist there, but historical smaller high-grade operations do. This could indicate larger, deeper, undiscovered deposits. I think there is still a lot of potential here, including for gold. At the current valuation, I am happy to hold.

Read more